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Fed heavy attack whether the of ot2 or qe3 two factions differences between market reaction was muted

:2012-06-25 22:06:24Source::UniteDirectory  [Submit Article]  [Submit Link]

  The election of the precious metals market in Greece, the European debt crisis and the G20 summit, the trend of precious metals seem somewhat helpless and confused after the Greek general election dim exit investor's attention this evening, the market focus of re-arrival of the Fed's interest rate decision any changes, and Bernanke's speech behind for the future long-term monetary policy is a continuation of OT2 or implied the QE3 market to forecast have.
Office of the President of Greece, an official said Wednesday (June 20), the Greek conservative New Democratic Party (NewDemocracy) leaders Samaras (KarolosPapoulias),, will be later on Wednesday sworn in as Prime Minister of Greece, which basically indicates that Greece temporarily come to an end .
Upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions announced in Beijing Thursday morning in the economic recovery and the European debt crisis in the depth of the deterioration of this meeting is of concern, the major U.S. and European investment bank made a forecast for the resolution, the majority of the investment bank expected the Fed will be extended to reverse operation (OT), Goldman Sachs, Societe Generale, Morgan Stanley and other big firms expected to be the third round of quantitative easing (QE3), your visit will be, let us look at how investment banks said.
Goldman Sachs led the - loose radical faction (QE3)
Goldman Sachs Group (GoldmanSachs), the Federal Reserve this week is likely to launch new asset purchase program, ie QE3, to purchase mortgage-backed securities (MBS) or form of government bonds to achieve. If the purchase total view, Goldman expects this round of the scale between 4000-6000 one hundred million U.S. dollars, but the Fed is likely to buy a certain amount on a regular basis (not to announce the purchase of the total) to carry out, for example, announced the monthly purchase of 500 - $ 75 billion in assets.
French bank Societe Generale (601166) (SocieteGenerale) released a report that weak economic data will prompt the Fed lowered the economy is expected to exacerbate the risks associated with the debt crisis in Europe, the Fed announced the implementation of the material in the interest rate meeting on June QE3 scale materials for the $ 600 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and U.S. Treasury bonds to the ratio of 4:6.
Morgan Stanley (MorganStanley) is expected in the latest U.S. economic and interest rate strategy report, the U.S. economic slowdown, the deterioration of the tense situation of the European market, as well as the more pessimistic expectations of the U.S. government to avoid fiscal cliff, all the Fed further easing the possibility of upgrading, these factors will make the Fed through the expansion of the balance sheet, to take further unconventional monetary policy is expected to trigger the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 19 to 20. possibilities for action in 80%.
Pacific (601,099) Investment Management Company (Pimco) economist NeelKashkari that U.S. economic growth is slowing, including the risks of a sharp deterioration in the unemployment rate, falling stock market and the euro zone turmoil, suggesting that the Fed will act is expected that the Fed will launch a new round of quantitative easing measures.
Nomura global vision (NomuraGlobalEconomics,) said, "May inflation data a sharp decline in U.S. producer price index fell. Low level of inflation, coupled with poor retail sales, which support the Fed's June 19-20 meeting further relaxation of interest rate meeting the expectations of the policy. Although the Fed is not ready to relax the policy, but the development of the European situation is the U.S. financial markets under pressure. if to further tighten the U.S. financial markets, we expected that the Fed will be forced to implement additional easing. "
Most agencies the voice - gentle and relaxed camp (to extend the OT)
German commercial banks (Commerzbank) in the latest research report pointed out that, as long as the debt crisis in Europe in the pre-trigger large market turmoil, the regular meeting of the FOMC will likely be the beginning of days later to discuss interest rates choose not do anything. But the counter-current of the global economy is gradually brought together recently surprised bleak U.S. economic data, which could prompt the Fed to the implementation of the "half measure", such as the continuation of "reversing the operation.
UBS (UBS) head of currency research MansoorMohi-uddi said, the Fed announced the extension of the reverse operation period in order to make long-term bond yields remain low or consolidate its commitment to keep interest rates unchanged, at least before the end of 2014. Restore the asset purchase measures the Fed is unlikely to be announced in this week's meeting, but QE3 the risk is on the rise.
Standard Chartered Bank's global economic team (StandardCharteredGlobalResearchTeam) said that the deterioration of economic fundamentals that the Fed policy action in this week's meeting, announced the extension of reversing the operation, but not the implementation of QE3.
Moody's (Moody's) is expected in the capital markets weekly in the latest release by the European debt crisis triggered by financial market pressures continue to accumulate, including the weak job market could prompt the FOMC to increase the monetary easing in the June meeting. The agency pointed out, extend to reverse the operation is likely a measure discussions to buy mortgage-backed securities will also be put on the next meeting agenda.
Royal Bank of Canada capital markets (RBCCapitalMarkets) Vice-Chairman of the global futures sector, precious metals strategist at GeorgeGero said, do not think the Fed will be implemented QE3, but it may take measures to extend to reverse the operation.
Brown Brothers Harriman global foreign exchange strategy team (BBHGlobalCurrencyStrategyTeam) pointed out that the, QE3 realization of the possibility of limited follow-up easing may be in the form of market exchange and reverse operation. The agency believes that the follow-up the possibility of reversing the operation.
Rabobank Nederland (Rabobank) has said, "We expect that in addition to reversing the continuation of the operation, there will be the introduction of other monetary easing." But QE3 may not be the Fed in the current economic environment and rational policy option - "Even U.S. economic recovery has become more subdued. "
The market focus is still two-day meeting on interest rates at the Fed. Some investors expect it will be extended later this month due to reverse operation (OT), is designed to push down long-term interest rates in order to protect the still fragile economy. Extend the Federal Reserve is expected to distort the operation, without the implementation of the new QE policy, which will boost the dollar, thereby suppressing the price of crude oil.
Switzerland in June investor confidence deteriorated sharply, a record five months minimum, and highlights the Swiss fear of running into financial difficulties.
For the analysis of precious metals: Spot silver K line, Bollinger Bands in a steady upstream, the K-line running in on the rail between the volatility of its short-term resistance and 5950 points in the uplink; moving average, the short, in the cycle moving average is intensive operation, formed upside suppress its MA60 moving average at 6100 points; photos, MACD 0 axis, indicators neutral; intellectual point of gold and silver prompted investors will continue to focus on the initial low of 5720-5600 points below spaces;
Spot silver Zhou K line, Bollinger Bands continued necking, its K line in the last six weeks has been sustained in the rail running between the lower track, bottom bounce around in the follow-up has continued to uplink did not break to continue to the upside ; moving average, short-cycle moving average in intensive development under the K-line, short-term upside to be concerned about whether the 6,000-point effective firm; photos, MACD is below 0 axis running, indicators of the neutral weak Silver, on Tuesday to drop to the recent bottom of the range 28.30 nearby, still in range bound, the price may be after the Fed meeting on interest rates will have a more clear direction. It is noteworthy that the silver positions iSharesSilverTrust three consecutive trading days, yesterday's holdings of 0.17%. Technically, the silver price chart is the support of the Bollinger Bands in the rail, short-term support concern 28.30,28.00 28.3 support will be the days of market strength of the boundary between, if the break is likely to slid toward the 27.50,27.00 ; above the resistance is concerned about the resistance of 28.8,29.0 and 29.2. Radical can be higher in the 28.3-28.8 range of bargain-hunting, steady trend clear advantage of the opportunity to do a single.
Prompted investors, evening morning data is essential, if you can not read the tape to recommend short positions waiting to see, the body is the greatest asset of the investment earnings, wealth is certainly encouraging, the body is still important, healthy investment mentality created a good investment climate.
Gold trend of the K line, the Bollinger Bands to maintain the opening upward trend, the gold price to charge one to bring the lead in yesterday's overcast column as a whole showed the trend of weak shocks, the current gold run Brin between the rails; MA 5 day moving average adhesion of 60-day moving average to go flat, upward price blocked this area, below the 10-day moving average go flat after Shui signs, gold gradually downward trend; photo index uplink, MACD remain weak long heavy volume, indicators failure down signs after bonding the RSI, Stoch go flat, the 80 level after bonding Shui signs; four hours chart, Boolean away after the downward trend in the gold price Boolean rail near; MA 5 EMA cross 10 days moving average downstream divergence, the 10-day moving average adhesive under Shui trend rail to go flat in the Boolean, for the moment, the gold price action can be blocked; photo index, MACD to maintain a short heavy volume on the strong side, indicators , RSI and Stoch Sicha downstream divergence;
Gold, yesterday failed to extend the strong pattern of previous high 1633QQ1318284325 down again on the red, the lowest intraday dropping 1615 final close at 1617 daily chart to Yinxian closing market cautious before the Fed meeting, the overall performance of the vibration pattern . Whether the market can be sustained in the medium-term gains depends on 1630 and 1640 resistance to the breakthrough or the market will once again usher in a wave down the callback to the days of the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates and Bernanke's speech, given the loose monetary policy expected is expected to guide the short-term market trend.
Asia after yesterday's rally down mainly to maintain a narrow range of finishing in the 1617-1623 interval, combined with efforts to callback yesterday although the market is no longer a strong up but has yet to change the pattern of the market up, the days of early bargain-hunting investors stop to an intraday low of 1617 to continue to hold the top of the first goal is concerned about the 1625 resistance, but also days of market strength at the critical boundaries. If the European plate is not directly on the break more than a single can choose to leave Europe plate continues the oscillation pattern does not rule out shock in 1617-1733 interval, therefore, the plate directly on the break 25 to more than just look above to 30 plus group: 227 359 519 validation 08 If you can not break above the Eurasian plate will be converted into a weak pattern of continuation of yesterday's decline below concern 1615,1608 support. Radical can also be before the announcement of the Fed interest rate again in 1632 near yesterday's high Bo empty, stop 1635, the top of.
For prudent investors can choose to risk things before departure, direction uncertain after the homeopathic approach, Bo empty and Bodo investors should strictly control risk in order to avoid the wrong direction to expand the unnecessary losses.

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