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Lin Yifu: China's economy will be the rapid development of 20 years

:2012-06-25 22:06:20Source::UniteDirectory  [Submit Article]  [Submit Link]

  Lin Yifu, the outgoing World Bank chief economist for the first time in the open Speaking
Long Run Alumni Auditorium, yesterday afternoon, held in Yingjie Exchange Center The theme of this large auditorium welcome Justin Lin victorious returned. Justin Lin also speak in public for the first time, described his optimism on the Chinese economy, he claimed that this optimism comes from a pragmatic judgment rather than blindly patriotic. He predicted that China's economy will be high-speed development for 20 years, China's per capita income reached 50 percent in the United States in 2030, the scale of economy as a whole will be twice the size of the United States, there will be about 150 Chinese enterprises in the world's top 500 companies.
At the meeting, Peking University National Development Research Institute, Wu and Mao-evaluation of Lin Yifu, the World Bank for 65 years, first from developing countries, chief economist for the World Bank has made a very big contribution.
Compared to Lin Yifu bearish world economic crisis, China's economic development has remained optimistic, "I think at least 20 years of rapid development of more than 8%, this optimism is not my blind patriotism, but China's economic development the existence of potential. "
Through the data, compared to China and Japan, China Taiwan, South Korea's economic growth model, that by 2030 China's per capita income will reach 50 percent in the United States. China's population size is four times that of the United States, the overall economies of scale may be double that of the United States.
In addition to the support of the data, Lin Yifu, also make a rational analysis, he believes that as a developing country, China is different from the developed countries, even if the export is restricted, but also through industrial upgrading, the stimulation of investment and other means to stimulate economic, and government debt ratio in the world at a low level of capital investment. China's high savings rate, the public has a lot of money, accumulated a lot of corporate profits, government finances as a lever to start private investment. He suggested that the Government can assess the situation and fine-tune the policy, if necessary, start a new round of proactive fiscal policy, "even if the international economic situation, China definitely has the ability to avoid a hard landing, soft landing for the healthy development of my confidence in the future.
But he also reminded that the need to be prepared for danger in times of peace, before 2008, developed countries also have seven or eight years of fast growth, but the crisis suddenly occurred. He reminded that the Government can not be taken lightly, to calm the mind.
- Wonderful words
To use the baby's eyes look to the future
Lin said that government investment in transportation is leading to waste mainly for China's economic growth to judge if the judge later Chinese growth rate is 7% to 8%, then 10 years, 20 years later, the economic scale of turn two or three Fan, now repair These road maybe not enough time. Government investment in transport is not a waste of judgment depends on the economy, that China's future economic development speed is only 2% -3%, there is a problem that such a construction.
Justin Yifu Lin jokingly put "Satellite": "I satellite is actually put in 1994, 1994 I proposed 30 years of China's economic growth in 2030 reached U.S. levels. As an economist, analyze problems, encounter problems when using a pair of baby-like eyes and look at the future because the baby's eyes is not subject to any past thinking impact and pollution, the only way to really see the future. "(reporter Zhou Yimei)

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